Combining the horizontal search capabilities of Yahoo and Microsoft would still leave Google twice the share of that market. But ‘Googling’ the net has lost its novelty value and the market is looking for a different kind of functionality. As mobile access grows, the future will be in vertical search like real estate, travel, jobs or financial services, and here Google will have less of a lead over the consolidated rival. In fact the vertical market is wide open. Take advertising networks. Slow takeup of advertising on social networks was behind Google’s uncharacteristic failure to hit its earning forecast on February 1. Meanwhile, AOL bought buy.at, an affiliate network that differs from pay-per-click in that the advertiser only pays if a transaction results. Innovative models like this can quickly lead advertisers and publishers to abandon providers that add less value domestically or fail to leverage international markets. Exec is going to have a lot of fun in the remainder of this year mapping this landscape.
